SUBSCRIBE TO THE NIXON CENTER EMAIL BULLETIN

ff

Nixon Center Director Paul J. Saunders argued at a recent Nixon Center event that notwithstanding official efforts at reconciliation after their disagreement over Iraq, the United States and Russia have yet to address fundamental weaknesses in their relationship. Yet, he said, effective partnership with Moscow can contribute to advancing vital U.S. interests and should be pursued. Saunders’ comments were based on his recent article in Policy Review, “The U.S. and Russia After Iraq.” Fritz Ermarth, Director of National Security Programs, moderated the discussion.

What Went Wrong?

Saunders listed three broad reasons for Russia’s disagreement with the U.S. over the Iraq war. First, he said, Russia has its own interests and perspectives and Russian officials did not agree with U.S. claims about Baghdad’s weapons of mass destruction or links to terrorism. As a result, Russian officials did not believe that Iraq was an imminent threat demanding urgent military action.

Secondly, the Russian government had to take into account its domestic political constraints. Saunders noted that supporting the U.S. when public opinion was strongly against the Iraq War, and when two major U.S. allies, Germany and France, were strongly opposed, could have weakened pro-Putin parliamentary factions and compromised their electoral prospects in December. This in turn could have limited Mr. Putin’s political and policy options during his presumptive second term.

Finally, because Russia has different perspectives and different constraints, its support cannot be taken for granted. Moscow needed to be persuaded to support Washington and was not, Saunders said. Over the long run, he added, the U.S. should build a relationship in which Russia is encouraged to cooperate with America because of the benefits it derives from the relationship.

However, Saunders said, it is important that the U.S. keep its relationship with Russia in perspective. No matter how successful Washington is in dealing with Moscow, it will be impossible to avoid all disagreement. Accordingly, he said, America’s objective should not be to eliminate disagreements, but rather to minimize and manage them.

Strengthening the Relationship

Saunders suggested that the U.S. could promote a closer relationship with Russia by focusing on areas of important mutual interest. He suggested terrorism, proliferation, and economic cooperation as areas in which the two countries can work together effectively.

Some participants expressed concern at the prospects of successful cooperation on terrorism and proliferation, which necessitates working with the military and intelligence services, the two most suspicious components of the Russian government. Saunders acknowledged the problem and suggested that it would take time to develop close cooperation on some issues. Nevertheless, he said, the U.S. and Russia have considerable common interests. Effective joint work in some areas could also reduce suspicions, he said.

Saunders further argued that establishing clearer U.S. priorities would help the relationship.  For example, he said, the U.S. is engaged in a variety of relatively peripheral policies that are extremely irritating to Russia without particularly advancing U.S. interests. American efforts to preserve and strengthen GUUAM- a regional organization composed of Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova- fall into this category. Saunders contended that the U.S. has been discouraging members of the group, perceived by Moscow as anti-Russian, from pulling out despite their own declining interest in it. Many Russians view this as hostile.

Closer cooperation could likewise improve Russian perceptions of the U.S.-Russian relationship, which many Russians see as one-sided. Saunders disagreed with the idea that Moscow has gained nothing from its ties to Washington; for example, he noted that Russia had been trying to eliminate the Taliban for a long time, and that it could not have done so without U.S. involvement. Similarly, he pointed out that Russia had benefited from greater U.S recognition of Russian interests. Still, providing obvious and tangible benefits is important, he said.

Finally, Saunders argued that the U.S. should work on its bilateral consultations with Russia. While it is not appropriate to discuss every topic with Russia, or to discuss every topic right away, Saunders said that earlier and more frequent consultation with Moscow could help to assuage Russian concerns over being taken for granted and help to give the Kremlin a sense that Russia is considered a “player.”

Saunders cautioned that strengthening the relationship between the U.S. and Russia will be difficult and noted that Russia will most likely be a “high-maintenance” partner requiring sustained attention. However, he said, Russia could make important contributions to vital U.S. interests and working with Moscow is worth the effort.

This Program Brief was prepared by Nixon Center intern Wylie Clark.